Alaska-SMB rematch up

source: Joaquin Henson | philstar.com

The PBA’s top two teams Alaska and San Miguel Beer will slug it out in a possible finals preview at the Araneta Coliseum on Dec. 9, leaving oddsmakers scratching their heads not knowing whom to pick as the favorite.

It will be their second meeting in the Philippine Cup. Alaska thrashed San Miguel, 85-74, in the first round last Oct. 17 but since the setback, the Beermen have been unbeatable.

San Miguel’s 109-96 loss to Smart-Gilas last Friday was no-bearing, meaning it had no impact on the Beermen’s scorching streak. The game, however, gave San Miguel a lot to think about, particularly as the Beermen missed 27 free throws and had 11 less fastbreak points.

San Miguel has another game to play – against Sta. Lucia Realty on Friday – before the Alaska rematch. The Aces play Gilas on Friday but the outcome won’t be reflected in the standings.

At the moment, Alaska and San Miguel are on top of the roost. The Aces have won their last three. The only blemish in coach Tim Cone’s record was an unexpected 86-81 loss to Rain Or Shine, No. 9 in the ladder with a 2-7 slate.

San Miguel started the conference on the wrong foot, yielding back-to-back decisions to Barangay Ginebra by 12 and Alaska by 11. But coach Siot Tanquingcen has rebounded in a big way and the Beermen are now the league’s hottest team with eight wins in a row.

Even as Alaska and San Miguel are 1-2 in the honor roll, neither is a shoo-in for the semifinals – yet. Talk ‘N’ Text, Ginebra and Sta. Lucia tote only three losses apiece and aren’t far behind in the race. Purefoods, in sixth spot at 4-4, is also in contention for an outright semifinals slot.

At the lower end are Burger King, Barako Bull, Rain or Shine and Coca-Cola, in that order, with at least seven defeats each.

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Willie Miller and ex-San Miguel guard L. A. Tenorio struck hardest against San Miguel in the first encounter as they combined for 33 points with no other Ace in twin digits. In contrast, ex-Alaska star Mike Cortez and Denok Miranda went scoreless.

Alaska and San Miguel are neck-to-neck in the battle for supremacy in the department of defense. The Beermen are now No. 1 in the league, allowing 85.2 points a game but the Aces are just a whiff away at No. 2 with 85.5. In offense, San Miguel is No. 2 with 96.1 and Alaska, No. 3 with 95.8. Talk ‘N’ Text is ahead in the production derby with a 98.2 clip.

It’s the same tight situation in the assists category. Alaska picked up 27 dishes in its 99-88 win over Barako Bull last Sunday to boost the Aces’ conference-high average to 21.4. San Miguel relinquished the driver’s seat in assists by accounting for only 15 in its 100-85 victory over Burger King last Sunday, lowering the Beermen’s average slightly to 20.7.

In other departments, San Miguel was tops in rebounding (54.0), turnover points (21.5) and steals (7.5) while Alaska was No. 1 in free throw percentage (.703), three-point percentage (.351) and second chance points (12.2).

The stats show that San Miguel’s biggest chink in the armor is a tendency to commit errors – the Beermen are averaging a league-high 20.4 turnovers. Another indication from the stats is Alaska’s controlled tempo as a key to its attack. The Aces are getting the job done defensively without taking too many risks in going for steals – they’re only No. 9 in average swipes, No. 9 in least opponents’ turnovers and No. 9 in turnover points, meaning that while Alaska isn’t forcing a truckload of miscues, rivals find it difficult to shoot a high percentage against a team-oriented clamp-down. Another indicator of Alaska’s deliberate style is the Aces’ No. 8 ranking in fastbreak points.

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The duel between San Miguel and Alaska should be a humdinger. San Miguel will try to dictate the pace by controlling both boards and playing up-tempo while Alaska will slow it down and lean on half-court execution.

Matchups will be vital. Do-it-all star Arwind Santos played in only his second game with San Miguel in the initial bout against Alaska but now, he’s a lot more familiar with Tanquingcen’s system and his teammates. Spiderman has been nothing less than a superhero in his last four games, including the Gilas loss, with an average of 24.8 points. Against Alaska, he’ll be a major headache for Cone with his versatility allowing shifts from position to position, depending on where to capitalize on his mismatch. Defensive specialist Tony de la Cruz will likely get the assignment to shadow Santos at No. 2, 3 or 4.

Another interesting matchup is Tenorio versus Cortez who were swapped in a trade between the two teams. Cortez still isn’t at 100 percent, nursing a shoulder injury, but may be up for the challenge next Wednesday particularly as he went zero in the first encounter. The Cool Cat wants redemption.

If Tanquingcen plays Danny Seigle, the question is what position the Fil-Am will settle in – at No. 3, he’ll clash with Santos for minutes unless Spiderman slides to No. 2 and at No. 4, he’ll be a little slow for Joe DeVance.

Ultimately, the winner will be the team that is able to impose its defensive will. Just like Seigle’s status, that, too, is a question mark – which only makes the coming showdown even more intriguing.