Can Kings make it to Final Four?

by Joaquin Henson | philstar.com

There are 11 games left in the PBA Philippine Cup double-round eliminations and the only sure thing is league-leading San Miguel Beer (13-3) is safely in the semifinals.

The teams are bunched up close to each other at the top and in the bottom. Here’s how they stand so far – No. 1 San Miguel Beer (13-3), No. 2 Alaska (11-3), No. 3 Barangay Ginebra (11-6), No. 4 Purefoods (10-6), No. 5 Talk ‘N’ Text (10-7), No. 6 Sta. Lucia Realty (9-6), No. 7 Burger King (5-11), No. 8 Rain Or Shine (4-12), No. 9 Coca-Cola (3-12) and No. 10 Barako Bull (3-13).

At the end of the eliminations, the lowest-ranked team is eliminated and the top two finishers advance to the semifinals outright. Teams that end up third, fourth and fifth qualify for the quarterfinals, leaving No. 6 to play No. 9 and No. 7 to play No. 8 in a pair of knockout games to start the wildcards. The winners of the two knockout games then slug it out in another do-or-die duel for the last quarterfinals ticket. That means the last quarterfinals qualifier will survive two knockout games.

The quarterfinal pairings will be No. 3 against the wildcard survivor and No. 4 against No. 5, both best-of-five series. Winners then move on to play the top two finishers in the best-of-seven semifinals. Survivors wind up disputing the crown in the best-of-seven finals.

Fans are wondering if Ginebra has a chance to make it to the semifinals with just one game – against Burger King on Sunday – remaining in its calendar. The answer is yes but it won’t be easy.

First, Ginebra must beat the Whoppers to raise its record to 12-6. The magic number of wins for an automatic semifinals ticket is 13 so the Kings will fall short by one.

Second, Alaska must blow at least three of its last four games – which is highly unlikely – to finish at 12-6. If Purefoods loses one of its last two assignments left, then Ginebra and Alaska will figure in a playoff for the second semifinals slot. If Alaska loses all its last four games – even more improbable, and Ginebra beats the Whoppers, then the Kings advance to the semifinals outright.

The scenario becomes even more interesting if Sta. Lucia sweeps its last three assignments against Alaska, Barako Bull and Purefoods to improve to 12-6.

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In another possibility, there could be a three-way tie for second place involving Purefoods, Alaska and Ginebra. That will happen if Purefoods beats Alaska and Sta. Lucia in the Giants’ last two games, the Aces win only one (over the Realtors) of its last four contests and Ginebra defeats Burger King. In this situation, Purefoods, Alaska and Ginebra will tote identical 12-6 records.

In a three-way tie for second, the team with the lowest quotient drops down to No. 4 and the other two face off for the No. 2 spot. At the moment, Ginebra is minus 16, Purefoods is minus 4 and Alaska is plus 20.

To make the three-way tie a reality, the Giants must beat the Aces which means Purefoods will improve on its quotient and it will take a 37-point loss by Alaska for Ginebra to move up in the quotient ladder. In effect, a three-way tie for second involving Purefoods, Alaska and Ginebra will relegate the Kings out of the semis picture.

Another three-way logjam for second place could involve Alaska, Ginebra and Sta. Lucia. They will finish at 12-6 if Alaska wins only one of its four remaining games (losing to Sta. Lucia in the process), Ginebra beats Burger King and the Realtors repulse the Aces, Barako Bull and Purefoods.

Here are the remaining games for each team: San Miguel Beer (Coca-Cola, Talk ‘N’ Text), Alaska (Sta. Lucia, Purefoods, Burger King, Rain Or Shine), Ginebra (Burger King), Purefoods (Alaska, Sta. Lucia), Talk ‘N’ Text (San Miguel Beer), Sta. Lucia (Alaska, Barako Bull, Purefoods), Burger King (Ginebra, Alaska), Rain Or Shine (Coca-Cola, Alaska), Coca-Cola (San Miguel Beer, Rain Or Shine, Barako Bull) and Barako Bull (Sta. Lucia, Coca-Cola).

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The way it looks, Alaska will join San Miguel in the semis as all the Aces need to clinch an outright ticket is to win two of its last four games against Sta. Lucia, Purefoods, Burger King and Rain Or Shine. Alaska has lost two of its last three but overall, the Aces have dropped only three games – to Rain Or Shine, Coca-Cola and Ginebra. In the first round, Alaska beat the Realtors, 91-83, the Whoppers, 87-73, and the Giants, 101-87.

It’s also possible that five teams could end up tied for second place with identical 11-7 records. But that would mean Alaska losing four in a row, Ginebra bowing to Burger King, Purefoods yielding to Sta. Lucia, Talk ‘N’ Text beating San Miguel Beer and the Realtors winning two of its last three games.

Since the PBA allows only one single playoff for one position, the two teams with the highest quotients will meet to determine the second outright semis qualifier. The loser in the playoff will slide to No. 3 and the next three positions will be decided by the quotient system.

Sta. Lucia might even pull a surprise by making it to the semis outright. The Realtors will do it if they win their last three assignments,Alaska loses four straight and Ginebra is upset by Burger King.

The battle to avoid the cellar is just as fierce. The Energy Boosters got a major lift when they upset Talk ‘N’ Text, 99-97, last Sunday. Their game against Coca-Cola next Wednesday could be the decider.